{ "schema_version": 1, "metadata": { "route": "berm-modulome-conditional-asfr-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "l2_bridge_status": "OPEN", "forecast_calibrated": false, "input_origin": "illustrative synthetic inputs; not estimated from observations", "changes_archived_v17": false, "assumptions": { "fi": [ "Kaikki kertoimet ovat nimettyjä havainnollistavia syötteitä, eivät tutkimuksista estimoituja vaikutuskokoja.", "Vertailun ASFR on kaikissa seitsemässä ikäryhmässä 100/1000. TFR 3,5 on laskuesimerkin lähtötaso.", "Ajuri on paikallinen biologinen skenaariosyöte. Muunnos mitatusta sähkömagneettisesta kentästä ja L2-silta ovat avoimia.", "Solun ja hormonien aika-asteikot ovat erillisiä. Niitä ei oleteta samanpituisiksi.", "Odotusjakauma korvaa kapasiteettisuhteen. Se ei ole sellaisenaan kalenterivuoden syntymätodennäköisyys." ], "en": [ "Every coefficient is a named illustrative input, not an effect size estimated from observations.", "Reference ASFR is 100 per 1000 in all seven age groups. TFR 3.5 is an arithmetic example baseline.", "The driver is a local biological scenario input. Conversion from a measured electromagnetic field and the L2 bridge remain open.", "Cell and hormone time scales are separate; they are not assumed to have the same duration.", "Waiting replaces the capacity ratio. It is not itself a calendar-year birth probability." ] } }, "scenarios": [ { "id": "equal-energy-timing", "title": { "fi": "Sama energia, eri ajoitus", "en": "Same energy, different timing" }, "description": { "fi": "Sama ajurin aikaintegraali annetaan alussa tai lopussa. Ca²⁺ ja palautuminen säilyttävät tapahtumajärjestyksen.", "en": "The same driver integral is applied early or late. Calcium and recovery retain the event order." }, "changed_inputs": [ { "key": "driver_timing", "label": { "fi": "Pulssin sijainti", "en": "Pulse timing" }, "reference": "0–2 s", "target": "2–4 s", "units": "seconds" } ], "input": { "schema_version": 1, "scenario_id": "equal-energy-timing", "geography_id": "SYNTHETIC", "year": 2026, "reference_year": 2026, "input_provenance": { "origin": "illustrative explicit inputs; no empirical calibration", "asfr": "synthetic 100 births per 1000 in every age group; TFR 3.5 is arithmetic only" }, "age_groups": [ { "age_group": "15-19", "reference_asfr": 100.0, "asfr_source_id": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "reference": { "protocol": { "protocol_id": "illustrative-cell-protocol-v1", "driver": [ 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "driver_units": "illustrative local biological drive 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"demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.515151515151515, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "field_state_status": { "reference": "NOT_EVALUATED", "target": "NOT_EVALUATED" }, "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_coordination": { "reference": { "version": "biological-coordination-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-harmonic-overlap-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "hormone_timing": { "signal_mean": 1.0, "signal_amplitude": 0.8, "signal_units": "illustrative concentration", "receptivity_mean": 1.0, "receptivity_amplitude": 0.8, "lag_radians": 0.0, "average_response": 1.32, "timing_factor": 1.0, "mapping": "relative harmonic overlap replaces the ovulatory clock gate" } }, "target": { "version": "biological-coordination-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-harmonic-overlap-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "hormone_timing": { "signal_mean": 1.0, "signal_amplitude": 0.8, "signal_units": "illustrative concentration", "receptivity_mean": 1.0, "receptivity_amplitude": 0.8, "lag_radians": 3.141592653589793, "average_response": 0.6799999999999999, "timing_factor": 0.515151515151515, "mapping": "relative harmonic overlap replaces the ovulatory clock gate" } } } }, { "age_group": "25-29", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 51.5151515151515, "biological_ratio": 0.515151515151515, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.515151515151515, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "field_state_status": { "reference": "NOT_EVALUATED", "target": "NOT_EVALUATED" }, "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_coordination": { "reference": { "version": "biological-coordination-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-harmonic-overlap-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "hormone_timing": { "signal_mean": 1.0, "signal_amplitude": 0.8, "signal_units": "illustrative concentration", "receptivity_mean": 1.0, "receptivity_amplitude": 0.8, "lag_radians": 0.0, "average_response": 1.32, "timing_factor": 1.0, "mapping": "relative harmonic overlap replaces the ovulatory clock gate" } }, "target": { "version": "biological-coordination-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-harmonic-overlap-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "hormone_timing": { "signal_mean": 1.0, "signal_amplitude": 0.8, "signal_units": "illustrative concentration", "receptivity_mean": 1.0, "receptivity_amplitude": 0.8, "lag_radians": 3.141592653589793, "average_response": 0.6799999999999999, "timing_factor": 0.515151515151515, "mapping": "relative harmonic overlap replaces the ovulatory clock gate" } } } }, { "age_group": "30-34", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 51.5151515151515, "biological_ratio": 0.515151515151515, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.515151515151515, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "field_state_status": { "reference": "NOT_EVALUATED", "target": "NOT_EVALUATED" }, "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_coordination": { "reference": { "version": "biological-coordination-v1", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-harmonic-overlap-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "hormone_timing": { "signal_mean": 1.0, "signal_amplitude": 0.8, "signal_units": "illustrative concentration", "receptivity_mean": 1.0, 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The L2 geometry-to-driver bridge remains open. 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support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "20-24", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", 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"next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "25-29", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "starting_parity": 0, "eligible_cycles": 12, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "reference": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "conceived_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "supported_conception_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "survivor_probability": 0.09880500753047881, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.1372883335691935, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "target": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1754223111404387, "conceived_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "supported_conception_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "survivor_probability": 0.1789847647543448, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "30-34", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "starting_parity": 0, "eligible_cycles": 12, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "reference": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "conceived_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "supported_conception_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "survivor_probability": 0.09880500753047881, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.1372883335691935, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "target": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1754223111404387, "conceived_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "supported_conception_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "survivor_probability": 0.1789847647543448, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "35-39", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "starting_parity": 0, "eligible_cycles": 12, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "reference": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "conceived_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "supported_conception_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "survivor_probability": 0.09880500753047881, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.1372883335691935, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "target": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1754223111404387, "conceived_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "supported_conception_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "survivor_probability": 0.1789847647543448, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "40-44", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "starting_parity": 0, "eligible_cycles": 12, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "reference": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "conceived_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "supported_conception_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "survivor_probability": 0.09880500753047881, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.1372883335691935, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "target": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1754223111404387, "conceived_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "supported_conception_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "survivor_probability": 0.1789847647543448, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } }, { "age_group": "45-49", "birth_cohort": null, "reference_asfr": 100.0, "predicted_asfr": 91.10295131532507, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "demand_opportunity_ratio": 1.0, "tempo_ratio": 1.0, "art_live_birth_delivery_ratio": 1.0, "total_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "sources": { "asfr": "SYNTHETIC_FLAT_ASFR_NOT_WPP", "demand": "UNSPECIFIED_DEMAND_SOURCE", "tempo": "UNSPECIFIED_TEMPO_SOURCE", "art": "UNSPECIFIED_ART_SOURCE" }, "biological_mapping": { "mapping": "finite-window-supported-conception-ratio", "calibration_status": "STRUCTURAL_ONLY", "starting_parity": 0, "eligible_cycles": 12, "biological_ratio": 0.9110295131532506, "reference": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "conceived_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "supported_conception_probability": 0.9011949924695212, "survivor_probability": 0.09880500753047881, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.17542231114043874, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.1372883335691935, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "target": { "cycles": 12, "mean_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1754223111404387, "conceived_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "supported_conception_probability": 0.8210152352456552, "survivor_probability": 0.1789847647543448, "next_cycle_conception_probability": 0.1002687009361023, "restricted_mean_waiting_cycles": 5.6574743193767585, "endpoint": "first conception with downstream support within eligible cycles; not calendar births", "support_assumption": "The relative pregnancy-support factor is a conditional probability only under unit reference support; no re-entry after a loss is modeled." }, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "field_state_statuses": { "reference": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ], "target": [ "NOT_EVALUATED" ] }, "assumption": "Supported-first-conception ratio substitutes for the biological ASFR term under unit reference pregnancy support; re-entry after loss, gestation and calendar tempo require an external mapping." } } ], "input_provenance": { "origin": "illustrative explicit inputs; no empirical calibration", "asfr": "synthetic 100 births per 1000 in every age group; TFR 3.5 is arithmetic only" }, "interpretation": "Conditional scenario with explicit coefficients, not an environmental-dose estimate or a country forecast. The L2 geometry-to-driver bridge remains open. Imported biological evidence constrains its own components only.", "schema_version": 1, "scenario_id": "waiting-heterogeneity", "route": "berm-modulome-conditional-asfr-v1", "l2_bridge_status": "OPEN", "forecast_calibrated": false, "changes_archived_v17": false, "parameter_ids": [ "illustrative-waiting-to-ASFR-v1", "illustrative-drive-to-state-0.1s-v1", "modulome.state.illustrative-shape-v1", "modulome.calcium.illustrative-shape-v1", "illustrative-functional-window-v1" ], "evidence_ids": [], "mechanism_runs": [ { "age_group": "15-19", "reference": { "protocol_id": "illustrative-cell-protocol-v1", "driver_units": "illustrative local biological drive units", "driver_provenance": "Synthetic shape comparison, not a measured EMF protocol", "membrane_competence": 0.6480000000000001, "features": { "receptor_readiness": 0.9941834225770695, "repair_capacity": 0.5507267640618564, "damage_load": 0.0012060932918347936, "calcium_peak": 0.42104392057908874, "calcium_final": 0.20363225719131042, 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