L0 · LINDGREN 2025
PREMISEg_mu_nu = eta_mu_nu + kappa A_mu A_nu
이중 커널 합성곱
두 개의 정규화된 기억 커널, 유계 Hill 반응, 기하학과 관측량 사이의 명시적으로 열린 다리를 갖는 Lindgren-DKC 후보 경로.
DKC FieldState 보정 파이프라인은 구현되어 값을 생성하며 F1–F9는 콘텐츠 해시로 잠긴 예측이다. 평가기는 명시적 미보정 민감도 입력도 받는다. 국가별 계열은 기술 도입 시점 프록시이지 측정 선량이 아니며 관측량으로 가는 Lindgren L2 연산자는 열려 있다.
Publication gate: release not authorized
This is a candidate route that is not release-authorized. 0/10 critical points V1–V10 pass and the evidence-protocol audit has not passed. F1–F9 are locked candidate forecasts, not results of an authorized release artifact. The site builds with this state shown; the gate closes only with an evaluation bundle.
- V1 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V2 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V3 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V4 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V5 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V6 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V7 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V8 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V9 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
- V10 FAIL · MISSING_EVALUATION
Rule: all(V1..V10 == PASS) AND protocolAudit.passed
1. 도출 경계
L1 · DERIVED
DERIVEDdelta_g = kappa (A_bio⊗a_ext + a_ext⊗A_bio + a_ext⊗a_ext)
L1 · GEODESIC DEVIATION
DERIVEDD_u sqrt(-det g) = kappa (A·u) / sqrt(1 + kappa A^2)
L2 · LORENTZ → EUCLIDEAN/SCALAR
OPEN CHOICEq = |A_bar| := sqrt(kappa)s [dimensionless spatial projection]
L1 · CHI ALGEBRA
DERIVEDchi_geo(q) = q / sqrt(1 + q^2); directional derivative evaluates chi_geo(|A_bar|) after the L2 reduction
L2 · OBSERVABLE BRIDGE
OPENO_r = integral K_r^(mu nu) delta_g_mu_nu dV
대수식 χ_geo(q)는 L1 지위를 유지한다. 양의 q=|Ā|를 Lorentz→Euclid 공간·스칼라 사영으로 선택하는 것은 L2 축약이다. 측정량이나 프록시 z에는 별도의 명시적 무차원 정규화 q=N(z)가 필요하며 그 선택과 보정은 열린 L0→L2 단계다. 다른 구성요소도 각각의 출처를 유지한다.
2. DKC 계산
T4 fast: k_B(s) = s^(n_B-1) exp(-s/tau_B) / (tau_B^n_B Gamma(n_B)), n_B in 2..6
annual T4 bins: K_B[l] proportional to CDF_Erlang(l+1) - CDF_Erlang(l)
slow: k_R(s) = exp(-s/tau_R) / tau_R
T3: v(a) = 5 (a<0), 4 (a<1), 3 (a<6), 2 (a<18), else 1
BL(t) = alpha integral k_B(s)x(t-s)ds + beta integral k_R(s)v(a)x(t-s)ds; beta = 1-alpha
sigma(BL) = BL^n / (x_half^n + BL^n)
Delta endpoint(t) = -gamma sigma(BL(t))
T4는 정규화 Erlang 고속 커널(정수 n_B=2–6)과 정규화 지수 저속 커널을 쓴다. Beta는 자유롭지 않고 beta=1−alpha이며 tau_R>tau_B이다. T3 코호트 가중치는 v(a)=5 (a<0), 4 (0≤a<1), 3 (1≤a<6), 2 (6≤a<18), 그 밖에는 1이다.
Dual-kernel candidate explorer
Vary the candidate time scales and response shape against a synthetic annual technology-adoption curve. The chart is a sensitivity view, not an empirical country fit.
Model status
candidate calculation / national technology timing proxy / open L2 / locked F1–F9 falsification register
The registered DKC FieldState calibration pipeline is implemented and produces values; the route also publishes the locked F1–F9 register. This Explorer run deliberately uses a synthetic timing proxy, not a local physical measurement or calibrated dose.
Candidate load and Hill saturation, 1990–2030
Four annual curves show the weighted fast arm, weighted slow arm, their total, and the normalized Hill saturation.
Fast armSlow armTotal loadHill saturation
Example construction: a midpoint-2013 sigmoid with 0.5/year steepness, multiplied by the continuous 0.33–1.00 duty-cycle scenario. A longer prehistory is calculated before the displayed window to avoid an artificial start-edge effect.
2030 scenario snapshot
- Synthetic proxy
- 1.000
- Duty cycle
- 1.000
- Fast arm
- 0.600
- Slow arm
- 0.292
- Total load
- 0.892
- Hill saturation
- 0.809
- Seasonal CV
- 0.000
3. T1–T12 정교화 레지스터
T1L3_IMPORTED
country-specific continuous duty cycle
d(t,c)=0.33+0.67/(1+exp(-k_s(t-t_mid(c))))
Stage 2 · free parameters: 0
T2L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
Hill response exponent
sigma(x)=x^n/(x_half^n+x^n)
Stage 3 · free parameters: 1
T3L3_IMPORTED
birth-cohort vulnerability
v(a)={5:a<0,4:0<=a<1,3:1<=a<6,2:6<=a<18,1:a>=18}
Stage 2 · free parameters: 0
T4L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
Erlang behavioural kernel
k_B(s)=s^(n_B-1) exp(-s/tau_B)/(tau_B^n_B Gamma(n_B))
Stage 3 · free parameters: 1
T5L3_IMPORTED
endpoint-specific testicular SAR multiplier
w_fertility(f)=SAR_testicular(f) coupling(f) modulation(f)
Stage 2 · free parameters: 0
T6L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
separate indoor Wi-Fi proxy
wifi(t)=w_wifi BB(t) D_wifi(t)
Stage 4 · free parameters: 0-1
T7L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
handset power-control correction
personal_eff=P_tx_max(1-eta ambient_norm)
Stage 4 · free parameters: 1
T8L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
network-density saturation
P_ambient=P_max N/(N_half+N)
Stage 4 · free parameters: 1
T9L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
spectral-complexity multiplier
H=-sum(p_f log2 p_f); multiplier=1+lambda_H H
Stage 4 · free parameters: 1
T10L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
seasonal-variation prediction
CV_seasonal=CV_0(1-duty_cycle)
Stage 2 · free parameters: 0
T11L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
melatonin-redox synergy
BL_syn=BL(1+epsilon_syn d_night chi_pineal)
Stage 2 · free parameters: 0
T12L3_PHENOMENOLOGICAL
explicit parental epigenetic carry-over
BL_final=BL_syn+epsilon_epi BL_parent_at_conception
Stage 4 · free parameters: 1
4. 현재 이용 가능한 것
| Layer | Current state | Allowed interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Geometry | 2025 Weyl ansatz + exact tensor perturbation | Premise / derived algebra |
| L2 | OPEN | No geometry-to-observable claim |
| National series | World Bank mobile, broadband, urban | TECHNOLOGY_TIMING_PROXY |
| FieldState | calibration pipeline implemented and producing values; uncalibrated sensitivity inputs also supported | Calibration output, proxy class and execution capability kept separate |
| DKC parameters | tau_B, tau_R, alpha and Hill parameters carry L3 provenance | They do not relabel L1-derived components |
| Predictions | F1–F9 content-addressed and locked | LOCKED_FALSIFIABLE_FORECAST |